POLITICAL REALITY

cia

2007-11-06T06:06:00.001-08:00

G1 Briefing Video

2007-11-06T06:05:00.000-08:00

Iraq Firefight

2007-11-06T06:03:00.001-08:00

Military Transformation

2007-11-04T14:58:00.000-08:00

Op-Ed: RAND Corp Reccomendations Weak

2007-11-01T07:24:00.000-07:00

In light of the thriving chaotic spray of clean-handed innocent blood shed since, well, the dawn of man, it might be time to go ahead and accept the crippling truth that it will be this way until the end.

This end however is not yet to come, thus leaving the pressing issue at hand of thwarting those who wish to hasten the process. This paper will discuss weaknesses in the policy recommendations posed by Bruce Hoffman to the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy and Geneva Center for Security Policy's fifth annual conference in late June 2004, as well as the dangers posed by political belligerence's persistent attempts to gain power and influence on the worldstage through not so unfamiliar means.

To begin with I am not of the school of thought that the free world faces an enemy like never before as posited by Hoffman. After much consideration I have determined the face of a 'war on terrorism' and a 'war on communism' is not a drastically different face at all, only a distant cousin—or half brother—bearing much resemblance to puppet (proxy) warfare executed during the Cold War days.

When Al Qaeda was bombarded by an onslaught of US power in retaliation for the 11 September attacks inside Afghanistan, a vast array of data was discovered which—in the accurately descriptive words of Hoffman—resembled, “dimensions of a lumbering bureaucracy.”

Considering the forced dispersion of central leadership of Al Qaeda they naturally have done all they know how to do—flexibly adapt the fight to counter the enemy and keep their political movement alive. This has taken the form, Hoffman says, of an ideology, a “vast enterprise” or even “an international movement. Now this ideology requires containment just as communism required containment.

Consider the reaction of the US and the installment of the Truman Doctrine, inspired by the Berlin Crisis and the Soviet-dominated countries in Eastern Europe if there is any doubt.

Interchange terrorism with communism and the true question at hand—as it relates to present day events—is who is pulling the puppet strings of our seemingly new proxy war?

As I see images within international news coverage of Russian President Vladimir Putin strutting around arrogantly with the President of Iran, regurgitating cold war banter no doubt left over from his days with the KGB—a part of the Soviet System I stress was not defeated, only reformed into the FSB—I am left pondering whether the American government has mistakenly treated Russia as a defeated enemy instead of a wounded, reforming system, thus alienating them, angering them, and leaving the opportunity for it to sneak back to prominence while cleverly turning CIA recruited proxies (i.e. Mujahadeen) against their creators as an ironical twist on an intense attempt to regain political ground within a nuclear charged landscape sculpted by these very same uncontrollable transnational non-state actors dead set with the desire to bring the world into all out nuclear war.

Either way it is necessary to avidly continue the fight with resolve, and do so while being more adaptive than our enemy, because now is truly the time when collectively the American people must determine whether we intend to repeat our past or learn from it.

As I see it the most daunting threat facing humanity is whether or not we allow nuclear weapons—or technology—to enter the hands of Al Qaeda or known supporters of terrorism, Iran, as we foolishly allowed it within the grips of the Soviet Union.

In conclusion, it is for these reasons I believe the policy recommendations made by Hoffman are entirely to lax and dangerously accommodating to a truly ravenous enemy, and will serve to completely dismantle any productive strategies to be devised where the ends justify the means and the US steps up and takes its place as one nation under God, in defense of the poor, the helpless and the stupid.

The Politics of Promptness

2007-11-01T07:14:00.000-07:00

http://www.hillaryhub.com

Politics are changing in the digital age and here is proof. Hilary Clinton's site (linked above) shows everywhere you can 'catch' the Senator on the web.

Truly a new world. . . Political Reality

Hill fights back

2007-11-01T07:08:00.000-07:00

Drug Dealer Sentenced to Prison for passing intel

2007-05-27T07:37:00.001-07:00

The Nazareth District Court Thursday sentenced a 30-year-old man from the Jezreel Valley community of Mazareb to six years imprisonment for passing information on to Hezbollah during the Second Lebanon War and conspiring to import narcotics.

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Sunday INTEL

2007-05-27T05:46:00.000-07:00

Dubai

Bin Sulayem opens Materials Handling & Logistics Middle East and Automechanika Middle East

27-MAY-2007
The Director General of Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM), Mr. Khalid A bin Sulayem, inaugurated two trade exhibitions - Materials Handling & Logistics Middle East and Automechanika Middle East - at the Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre on Sunday.

US
19-MAR-2007
DHS Daily Open Source

Analysis

What Is the Surge Doing to Us?

This article was originally published on Alternet.org.

The Army Surgeon General’s study of soldiers’ and Marines’ abuse of Iraqi civilians and other serious ethical problems was reported by the press a few weeks ago. That coverage addressed only a small part of the surgeon general’s findings and conclusions – the most important of which talked about what leads our troops to behave in such ways. This report, which can be found at http://www.armymedicine.army.mil/news/mhat/mhat_iv/MHAT_IV_Report_17NOV06.pdf, explains many important things about the war in Iraq, including how the war was lost, why the surge can only fail, and – perhaps worst of all – what the nation is doing to the Soldiers and Marines so many profess to support. Winslow Wheeler explains in an article made available at Alternet.org.

Continue Reading here http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=3966&from_page=../index.cfm

China: U.S. Exaggerating Military Threat

2007-05-27T04:19:00.001-07:00

BEIJING -- China lashed out at the United States on Sunday, rejecting a Pentagon report about Beijing's defense buildup as exaggerated and misleading, and saying that such rhetoric threatened attempts to improve military and trade links.

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Agreement in Ukraine Appears to Resolve Political Crisis

2007-05-27T04:11:00.001-07:00

MOSCOW, May 27 -- Ukraine's divided political leadership early Sunday appeared to resolve a political crisis that had threatened to turn violent, with an agreement by the country's president and prime minister to hold parliamentary elections Sept. 30.

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Sunday Choice Clips

2007-05-27T04:03:00.000-07:00

Mike Wallace interviews Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, in 1974 and '76

Troop Tracking Chips

Journalist recounts attack in Sarajevo on CNN

Iran Says EU Nuclear Talks Postponed

2007-05-27T03:42:00.000-07:00

Iran says EU nuclear talks postponed
Stuart Williams
AFP
May 27, 2007

TEHRAN -- Iran and the European Union have agreed to postpone crunch talks seeking to break the deadlock in the standoff over the Iranian nuclear program, the foreign ministry spokesman said Sunday.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana were due to meet Thursday, possibly in Spain, for their second encounter in just over a month.

Read More Below

http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070527-053221-8020r

Hill & Obama

2007-05-27T03:29:00.000-07:00

U.S. Security Contractors Open Fire in Baghdad

2007-05-27T03:12:00.001-07:00

Employees of Blackwater USA, a private security firm under contract to the State Department, opened fire on the streets of Baghdad twice in two days last week, and one of the incidents provoked a standoff between the security contractors and Iraqi forces, U.S. and Iraqi officials said.

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In Gulf, Cheney Pointedly Warns Iran

2007-05-22T09:14:00.001-07:00

Aboard an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf 150 miles off Iran's coast, Vice President Cheney warned Tehran yesterday that the United States and its allies will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, close off vital sea lanes for oil supplies, or control the Middle East.

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British Man Busted With al-Qaida Manual

2007-05-22T08:48:00.001-07:00

LONDON -- Police investigating the July 7, 2005, London transit bombings charged a man Sunday with possessing an al-Qaida training manual.

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CIA briefing SEC monthly on terrorists: Barron's

2007-05-22T08:45:00.001-07:00

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is being briefed monthly by the Central Intelligence Agency about terrorists and other criminals active in global stock markets, Barron's said in its latest edition.

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Lebanon Confronts A Fierce Adversary

2007-05-22T02:17:00.001-07:00

NAHR AL-BARED, Lebanon, May 21 -- A little-known Islamic militant group based in a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon battled government troops Monday in some of the country's fiercest fighting since the civil war ended in 1990, surprising the Lebanese military with the scope of the...

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Ballot Boxing

2007-05-21T18:41:00.001-07:00

VOTES SHOULD count and be counted. Agreed. But the devil is in the details. The House will soon consider a bill introduced by Rep. Rush D. Holt (D-N.J.) that aims to make all ballots voter-verifiable and recountable and to set up a system for audits, or partial recounts, of ballots in every federal race.

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Boost in Iran's Capacity To Enrich Uranium Noted

2007-05-21T18:28:00.001-07:00

Iran has doubled its capacity to enrich uranium in the past two months but remains far from the technological know-how the Bush administration fears and the capabilities that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently claimed, according to an official letter written by a senior U.N. nuclear inspector...

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In Gulf, Cheney Pointedly Warns Iran

2007-05-21T18:24:00.001-07:00

Iran Charges U.S. Scholar With Trying to Topple Regime

2007-05-21T18:18:00.001-07:00

American scholar Haleh Esfandiari has been charged with trying to topple the Iranian regime, Iran's state-controlled television reported today.

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Cheney Stands Alone As Hard-Liner

2007-05-21T18:01:00.001-07:00

WASHINGTON -- Most of the war hawks who stood with President Bush on Iraq are gone or departing, leaving Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney increasingly without much company in trumpeting steely resolve.

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Daunting Task, Supreme Victory

2007-03-28T00:03:00.000-07:00

By Craig S. Byrnes

A National Intelligence Estimate released in the beginning of February offers a gloomy portrayal of the coming months in Iraq. The article, “Quick Highlights of the National Intelligence Estimate Report,” by Jonathan Karl, a writer with ABC News, addresses the “Civil War” issue, the worsening situation, consequences of a rapid withdrawal of U.S, troops and the lethal meddling of Iran inside Iraq. Success in Iraq is detrimental to the stability of the entire Middle East region, as well as, being a key vital interest to the United States in terms of power, national security, international credibility and natural resources, any plunge into chaos must be prevented. It is important to pay close attention to the current situation because it is directly related to U.S. national defense policy. Globalized Terrorism—pioneered from across the globe in a cave—regards the United States as the “Great Satan” making it a target of necessity for Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and other terrorist groups who despise the west. The success of the American Forces in Iraq must be of pristine certainty. What happens here is likely to decisively shape the policy of a future administration for better or worse.

Karl begins by addressing the characterization of the situation in Iraq as a ‘Civil War’. Citing the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) he says the term only describes some key elements of the conflict, and he points out that a key judgment of the NIE is the term ‘civil war’ “does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq.” While an appropriate descriptor for “the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, the sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian motivation, and population displacements,” it does not encompass Shia on Shia violence, AQI and Sunni Insurgent attacks on Coalition forces or widespread criminally motivated violence—in the opinion of the Intelligence Community.

It is Karl’s assessment that the already bloody situation could get much worse. He points out Sunni defection from the government, or assassinations of important political and religious leaders, could throw the creeping decline into a chaotic plunge causing drastic humanitarian consequences, political consequences and severe security setbacks. This is another area where the article cites a risk of the conflict seeping over the rather porous Iraqi borders into neighboring states thus destabilizing the region.

Karl also summarizes key judgments on the controversial issue of U.S. troop withdrawal stating there would be “catastrophic consequence” for such action. He shares the belief of the intelligence community—in the NIE—that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), “would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution.” Another source of concern—should the U.S. forces withdraw—is the threat of neighboring countries openly contributing to the discord, in all probability bringing about an unacceptably large number of civilian casualties and involuntary displacement of the population. Especially if as the NIE points out—according to Karl—Turkey were to launch a military incursion into the country. Concluding his remarks on the consequences of hasty departure, he conveys the Intelligence Communities belief that Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) would use the Al-Anbar province as their home base of operations. It is from this safe-haven AQI would plan and launch attacks in and outside of Iraq, leading to more instability in the region.

Karl also mentions one of the final key assessments of the NIE concerns Iranian involvement within Iraq, and more particularly their providing “lethal support” for Shia groups causing the conflicts to intensify like gas thrown on a fire. Karl ends the summary citing the intelligence report as saying this Iraqi neighbor is “not likely to be a major driver of violence,” in the coming months due in part to the self-sustaining nature of the sectarian conflict, however any further explanation of this judgment remains classified in the 90-page National Intelligence Estimate distributed to senior administration individuals and select members of Congress.

Analysis

According to the Key Judgments portion of the Estimate, “Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq.” It also notes if coalition forces were to hastily withdraw during the next 12 to 18 months the result would be escalation in sectarian conflict, the ISF is unlikely to survive, and AQI would launch increasing attacks in Iraq and abroad from their Al-Anbar stronghold. Not one consequence of withdrawal is an acceptable outcome anyway you look at. The anarchic chaos would ignite the entire Middle East, it would severely weaken the United States on the international stage, and it would be a critical breach in U.S. National Security, placing innocent Americans in harms way around the globe. Oil markets would become destabilized and the price of oil would skyrocket. Oil is a vital interest to the United States and the majority of the world community, and it is therefore an obligation for Coalition forces to maintain as much stability as possible in the region. Despite this obvious necessity for action by the only hyperpower in the world on behalf of those who cannot, the House of Representatives passed a non-binding resolution similar to one confirmed in the Senate in the last few weeks, “Disapproving of the decision of the President announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.” This wasteful resolution (H.Con.Res.63) was sponsored by Rep. Ike Skelton of Mo. Along with 5 cosponsors including Ms. Pelosi. A New York Times article titled “Senate Rejects Renewed Effort to Debate Iraq,” By CARL HULSE and JEFF ZELENY on February 17, 2007 talks about the Senate’s rejection of the House Resolution, but cites 3^rd ranking Democrat Charles E. Schumer of New York as saying, “We will be relentless . . . There will be resolution after resolution, amendment after amendment, all forcing this body to do what it has not done in the previous three years: debate and discuss Iraq.” This behavior and rhetoric by power drunk lawmakers flaws the policy making process, and further endangers the security of the American people. Instead of concerning themselves with issues at hand, they are blinded by an astonishing amount of hate for the President of the United States, driving them to foolishly disrespect the Presidency, provide much fodder for terrorist propaganda machines and ultimately discredit this country in they eyes of the world. "This was his [President Bush] decision to go to war with an ill-conceived plan and an incompetently executed strategy," said 2008 Presidential candidate and democratic Senator from New York Hillary Rodham Clinton, in an Associated Press article January 28, 2007 entitled “Hillary Resents Bush Iraq Strategy.” Ms. Clinton was making her way through Iowa during this time campaigning to be the first woman President of the United States. Resentment is not conducive to peace or success. While the political divide continues—fueled by the far-fetched conception that the mid-term elections were a mandate for the democrats against President Bush and the war in Iraq—the data within the NIE seems to be largely overlooked, distrusted and even misused for political gain.

National Intelligence Estimates are the single most authoritative written judgments on issues concerning National Security, and are issued by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) with the support of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). According to the DNI, this estimate holds coordinated judgments of the Intelligence Community “regarding the likely course of future events.” The key goal of the NIE and the NIC is to “provide policymakers with the best unvarnished and unbiased information,” offering depth and accuracy to intelligence analysis. Key leaders within the U.S. government who discredit the document and the entire Intelligence Community do so in haste without fully appreciating the scope of the world we live in. A truly clear and present danger is that of future policy limiting and so weakening the ability of the government to carryout the means necessary to avoid a cruel end to our freedom. Our elected officials are put in place to do a job on behalf of the people because they are better suited—and most times more educated—than the majority of the population. When considering policy crucial to the survival and existence of the state it would be prudent to explain to the American people the consequences of pulling out of Iraq at present time, and to avoid focusing on the motivations of entering the war in the first place. In any job an employee is more attractive for accepting responsibility and letting conflict or hardships build character and add to their experience, allowing them to do the job better as they travel through time and I would submit anything less than this is malarkey at the level of public official.

Looking past these inevitable imperfections one certain truth remains: America is left with the choice to succeed or fail in Iraq. When Media begins to connect the current conflict with the Vietnam War era it applies a blemished perspective to the mind of the receiver. A preconceived notion that any war fought against insurgencies is doomed before it begins is simply false. According to Donald Stoker, a professor of strategy and policy for the U.S. Naval War College’s Monterey Program, in a January 2007 online article, “The cold, hard truth about the Bush administration’s strategy of “surging” additional U.S. forces into Iraq is that it could work. Insurgencies are rarely as strong or successful as the public has come to believe.” Stoker also mentions it normally takes 8 to 11 years to successfully fight an insurgency, but as a result of U.S. failure to maintain security in cleared regions, the impatience of congress and its constituents to allow troops the time needed to secure victory and the failure of the Iraqi government to step up to the plate it may be a daunting task. “One tragedy of the Iraq war may be that the administration’s new strategy came too late to avert a rare, decisive insurgent victory,” said Stoker.

During uncommon times of peril such as these it becomes necessary to at times accept the face of war and unleash hell on your enemy. “At junctures of high conflict short of war, the side better able to cope with the potential consequences of raising the stakes has the advantage,” according to Paul Nitze on page six of “Is SALT II a Fair Deal for the United States” published in 1979 by the Washington, D.C. Committee on the Present Danger. “The other side is the one under greater pressure to scramble for a peaceful way out—to have the advantage at the utmost level of violence helps at every lesser level.” So I believe it prudent for the American people to set aside their aversion to all out violence, as one nation under God, and remind the world what a hyperpower can do. Words flow like water down a waterfall splashing into the chaotic pool of death filled with the blood of innocents, and these same words have only served as a lubricant increasing the flow of bodies into the abyss. Peace is the calm after a storm, a gift which cannot be given by any man, only earned through overcoming intense adversity. The degree of which determines the scope of peace. For reasons beyond the scope of this analysis—including Nuclear provocation, supplying arms to fuel sectarian conflict and the murder of more than 150 American soldiers—there is no question ground zero should be Iranian interests around the globe and immediate regime change of the sitting President Ahmadinejad. Wars are only unpopular when you are losing. The enemy should rightly fear the U.S. to the point of deterrence, and when they miscalculate such fear by blatantly pursuing nuclear arms, threatening annihilation of Israel and brazenly interfering in wars they were not invited to in an attempt to make a mockery of the United States government while securing their own interests in the region should face complete destruction after repeated attempts for diplomatic solutions have failed.

All in all, the National Intelligence Estimate provides key data for understanding the cost of victory and the cost of failure. Jonathan Karl does an first-rate job keying in on the most important areas of the summary; the inadequacy of “Civil War” as an accurate depiction of the current situation within Iraq, the catastrophic consequences of U.S. withdrawal—including the AQI achieving a strong hold in the Al-Anbar Province—and the lethal meddling of Iran within the borders of Iraq and beyond. The next step is properly educating politicians and the American people on the real issues at hand in this deep rooted conflict. After the realization of the seriousness of the situation, exercising extreme blunt force to ensure swift, decisive and supreme victory will be the only rational course of action to remain a free people in an oppressed anarchic world.

Source Documents

“Quick Highlights of the National Intelligence Estimate Report” By Jonathan Karl. February 02, 2007 ABC News Online

“A Divided House Denounces Plan for More Troops”. By Jeff Zeleny and Michael Luo. February 17, 2007 The New York Times

“Car Bombs Kill 7 amid Iraq Crackdown”. By Kim Gamel. Associated Press.

“Clinton: Iraq War Bush’s Responsibility”. By Mike Glover Associated Press January 28, 2007

H. Con. Res. 63—Concurrent Resolution full text

[National Intelligence Estimate] Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead. January 2007

“On to the Hard Part on Iraq”. Editorial. The New York Times, February 17, 2007.

“The Worldwide Threat 2004: Challenges in a Changing Global Context

Testimony of Director of Central Intelligence

George J. Tenet

March 9, 2004

“Vast Change since the Cold War”. By Roger Cohen (International Herald Tribune). February 17, 2007, The New York Times and the International Herald Tribune.

There are many other general sources available upon request if need arises.